The Signal and the Noise

The Signal and the Noise Author Nate Silver
ISBN-10 9781101595954
Year 2012-09-27
Pages 544
Language en
Publisher Penguin
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One of Wall Street Journal's Best Ten Works of Nonfiction in 2012 New York Times Bestseller “Not so different in spirit from the way public intellectuals like John Kenneth Galbraith once shaped discussions of economic policy and public figures like Walter Cronkite helped sway opinion on the Vietnam War…could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade.” —New York Times Book Review "Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century." —Rachel Maddow, author of Drift "A serious treatise about the craft of prediction—without academic mathematics—cheerily aimed at lay readers. Silver's coverage is polymathic, ranging from poker and earthquakes to climate change and terrorism." —New York Review of Books Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read. From the Trade Paperback edition.

The Signal and the Noise in 30 Minutes

The Signal and the Noise    in 30 Minutes Author
ISBN-10 1623150523
Year 2012-11-01
Pages 46
Language en
Publisher
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The Signal and the Noise …in 30 Minutes is the essential guide to quickly understanding the fundamental components of prediction outlined in Nate Silver’s bestselling book, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail ¬– but Some Don’t. In The Signal and the Noise bestselling author, political analyst, and statistician Nate Silver investigates the fundamentals of forecasting and answers why too much information can be misleading. Exploring a variety of fields, ranging from politics to poker to Wall Street and global warming, Silver explores why some forecasts are successful and, perhaps more telling, why so many fail. Stressing the importance of acknowledging personal bias, Silver posits that better forecasters possess a superior understanding of uncertainty and are driven by truth and humility while overconfidence can lead to failure. Presenting a framework for what constitutes a good forecast, Silver provides insight and tools for understanding how to successfully utilize Big Data and decipher meaningful signals from random noise.

Introduction to Random Signals and Noise

Introduction to Random Signals and Noise Author Wim C. Van Etten
ISBN-10 9780470024126
Year 2006-02-03
Pages 270
Language en
Publisher John Wiley & Sons
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Random signals and noise are present in many engineering systems and networks. Signal processing techniques allow engineers to distinguish between useful signals in audio, video or communication equipment, and interference, which disturbs the desired signal. With a strong mathematical grounding, this text provides a clear introduction to the fundamentals of stochastic processes and their practical applications to random signals and noise. With worked examples, problems, and detailed appendices, Introduction to Random Signals and Noise gives the reader the knowledge to design optimum systems for effectively coping with unwanted signals. Key features: Considers a wide range of signals and noise, including analogue, discrete-time and bandpass signals in both time and frequency domains. Analyses the basics of digital signal detection using matched filtering, signal space representation and correlation receiver. Examines optimal filtering methods and their consequences. Presents a detailed discussion of the topic of Poisson processes and shot noise. An excellent resource for professional engineers developing communication systems, semiconductor devices, and audio and video equipment, this book is also ideal for senior undergraduate and graduate students in Electronic and Electrical Engineering.

Signal to Noise

Signal to Noise Author Silvia Moreno-Garcia
ISBN-10 1781082995
Year 2015-02-10
Pages 272
Language en
Publisher Solaris
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A literary fantasy about love, music and sorcery, set against the background of Mexico City. Mexico City, 1988: Long before iTunes or MP3s, you said “I love you” with a mixtape. Meche, awkward and fifteen, has two equally unhip friends -- Sebastian and Daniela -- and a whole lot of vinyl records to keep her company. When she discovers how to cast spells using music, the future looks brighter for the trio. With help from this newfound magic, the three friends will piece together their broken families, change their status as non-entities, and maybe even find love... Mexico City, 2009: Two decades after abandoning the metropolis, Meche returns for her estranged father’s funeral. It’s hard enough to cope with her family, but then she runs into Sebastian, and it revives memories from her childhood she thought she buried a long time ago. What really happened back then? What precipitated the bitter falling out with her father? And, is there any magic left?

Noise and Vibration Analysis

Noise and Vibration Analysis Author Anders Brandt
ISBN-10 0470978112
Year 2011-03-29
Pages 464
Language en
Publisher John Wiley & Sons
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Noise and Vibration Analysis is a complete and practical guide that combines both signal processing and modal analysis theory with their practical application in noise and vibration analysis. It provides an invaluable, integrated guide for practicing engineers as well as a suitable introduction for students new to the topic of noise and vibration. Taking a practical learning approach, Brandt includes exercises that allow the content to be developed in an academic course framework or as supplementary material for private and further study. Addresses the theory and application of signal analysis procedures as they are applied in modern instruments and software for noise and vibration analysis Features numerous line diagrams and illustrations Accompanied by a web site at www.wiley.com/go/brandt with numerous MATLAB tools and examples. Noise and Vibration Analysis provides an excellent resource for researchers and engineers from automotive, aerospace, mechanical, or electronics industries who work with experimental or analytical vibration analysis and/or acoustics. It will also appeal to graduate students enrolled in vibration analysis, experimental structural dynamics, or applied signal analysis courses.

The Signal and the Noise in 30 Minutes The Expert Guide to Nate Silver s Critically Acclaimed Book the 30 Minute Expert Series

The Signal and the Noise in 30 Minutes   The Expert Guide to Nate Silver s Critically Acclaimed Book  the 30 Minute Expert Series Author The 30 Minute Expert Series
ISBN-10 162315121X
Year 2013-03-29
Pages 32
Language en
Publisher
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For a complete understanding of Nate Silver's Signal and the Noise, we strongly encourage you to purchase the original book titled The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--But Some Don't by Penguin Publishing Big data has arrived! Whether you're using that data to make a billion-dollar decision to merge two companies or to choose a team to win the World Series, how do you distinguish the signal (the truth) from the noise (our all-too-human impulse to make choices based on personal bias)? In his groundbreaking work The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver brings the complexities of statistics down to earth by using real-life examples of how we all make predictions and why those predictions are often wrong. The Signal and the Noise in 30 Minutes is your expert guide to Nate Silver's main thesis that our decision making is filtered through our personal assumptions and beliefs as opposed to the truth of the data at hand. This concise companion details: * Nate Silver's journey from forecasting Major League Baseball players' performance to predicting the outcome of U.S. presidential elections * Both praise for and critical reactions to his ideas from such noted sources as the New York Review of Books and the Wall Street Journal * Key concepts, including analyzing prediction failures, practicing Bayesian thinking, and expanding self-awareness * Key terms, such as Bayes's theorem, with easy-to-understand definitions and examples * Recommended readings and a bibliography listing additional resources analyzing Silver's work and the phenomenon of big data The Signal and the Noise in 30 Minutes is a timely guide to a topic that affects all our lives. From choosing stocks, to predicting wars, to making personal changes in light of climate change, The Signal and the Noise challenges both nations and individuals to make smarter choices. About the 30 Minute Expert Series Offering a concise exploration of a book's ideas, history, application, and critical reception, the 30 Minute Expert Series is designed for busy individuals interested in acquiring an in-depth understanding of seminal works. More than just a summary, the 30 Minute Expert Series offers detailed analysis, critical presentation of key ideas and their application, extensive reading lists for additional information, and a contextual understanding of the work of leading authors. Designed as a companion to the original work, the 30 Minute Expert Series enables readers to develop expert knowledge of an important work ... in 30 minutes.

Signal and Noise

Signal and Noise Author Brian Larkin
ISBN-10 0822341085
Year 2008-03-31
Pages 313
Language en
Publisher Duke University Press
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DIVExamines the role of media technologies in shaping urban Africa through an ethnographic study of popular culture in northern Nigeria./div

Electronic Noise and Interfering Signals

Electronic Noise and Interfering Signals Author Gabriel Vasilescu
ISBN-10 9783540265108
Year 2006-01-17
Pages 709
Language en
Publisher Springer Science & Business Media
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Electronic Noise and Interfering Signals is a comprehensive reference book on noise and interference in electronic circuits, with particular focus on low-noise design. The first part of the book deals with mechanisms, modelling, and computation of intrinsic noise which is generated in every electronic device. The second part analyzes the coupling mechanisms which can lead to a contamination of circuits by parasitic signals and provides appropriate solutions to this problem. The last part contains more than 100 practical, elaborate case studies. The book requires no advanced mathematical training as it introduces the fundamental methods. Moreover, it provides insight into computational noise analysis with SPICE and NOF, a software developed by the author. The book addresses designers of electronic circuits as well as researchers from electrical engineering, physics, and material science. It should also be of interest for undergraduate and graduate students.

The Signal and the Noise in 30 Minutes

The Signal and the Noise    in 30 Minutes Author
ISBN-10 9781623150532
Year 2012-11-20
Pages
Language en
Publisher Callisto Media Inc
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The Signal and the Noise …in 30 Minutes is the essential guide to quickly understanding the fundamental components of prediction outlined in Nate Silver’s bestselling book, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail ¬– but Some Don’t. In The Signal and the Noise bestselling author, political analyst, and statistician Nate Silver investigates the fundamentals of forecasting and answers why too much information can be misleading. Exploring a variety of fields, ranging from politics to poker to Wall Street and global warming, Silver explores why some forecasts are successful and, perhaps more telling, why so many fail. Stressing the importance of acknowledging personal bias, Silver posits that better forecasters possess a superior understanding of uncertainty and are driven by truth and humility while overconfidence can lead to failure. Presenting a framework for what constitutes a good forecast, Silver provides insight and tools for understanding how to successfully utilize Big Data and decipher meaningful signals from random noise.

The Hedgehog and the Fox

The Hedgehog and the Fox Author Isaiah Berlin
ISBN-10 9781400846634
Year 2013-06-02
Pages 144
Language en
Publisher Princeton University Press
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"The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing." This ancient Greek aphorism, preserved in a fragment from the poet Archilochus, describes the central thesis of Isaiah Berlin's masterly essay on Leo Tolstoy and the philosophy of history, the subject of the epilogue to War and Peace. Although there have been many interpretations of the adage, Berlin uses it to mark a fundamental distinction between human beings who are fascinated by the infinite variety of things and those who relate everything to a central, all-embracing system. Applied to Tolstoy, the saying illuminates a paradox that helps explain his philosophy of history: Tolstoy was a fox, but believed in being a hedgehog. One of Berlin's most celebrated works, this extraordinary essay offers profound insights about Tolstoy, historical understanding, and human psychology. This new edition features a revised text that supplants all previous versions, English translations of the many passages in foreign languages, a new foreword in which Berlin biographer Michael Ignatieff explains the enduring appeal of Berlin's essay, and a new appendix that provides rich context, including excerpts from reviews and Berlin's letters, as well as a startling new interpretation of Archilochus's epigram.

The Journey and the Voice the Signal and the Noise

The Journey   and the Voice  the Signal and the Noise Author Vijay Baldev Mehra
ISBN-10 1468036297
Year 2012-03-01
Pages 248
Language en
Publisher Createspace Independent Pub
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As Amar starts his journey, he has no idea that this “little journey” is going to give him insights into the big one, the journey of life. Throughout the flight, Amar zones in and out of scenes from his life—his highly successful career, his successes and failures as a human being. And for the first time, he starts to listen to the voice and fathom its deep and unshakable wisdom. He had heard the voice many times before in his life, but he was not listening then. He listens now. And he learns of the signal. And the noise. And their interplay. And he develops uncanny insights into the journey, the big one—the Journey of Life. He learns to appreciate it, to live it, to love it for all its beauty. All its promise. And all its imperfections. And the voice speaks again to Amar, saying, “Remember, it's all good…This is all good.” Meant to start a process of inquiry, rather than to supply any concrete answers, The Journey…and the Voice, the Signal and the Noise may prompt readers to look deeper into their own lives. Says the author, “I hope, after reading my novel, that readers feel warmer, bigger, and a little more whole.” “Three Stars…a pleasant read.” --ForeWord Reviews “Readers searching for spiritual beginnings will find a soft launching pad here.” --Kirkus Reviews “Here is humor and wisdom and much that those of us who have made the same journey will identify with. I recommend it to anyone who is looking for insights into the experience of “growing up”, about the life trajectory of a high flying ivy-league educated professional, and to those who would simply like a good laugh!” Abhishek Bhartia Director Sitaram Bhartia Institute of Science & Research New Delhi India “The Journey…and the Voice, the Signal and the Noise is an entertaining and enlightening metaphorical trip from the ego to the spiritual. As he reflects upon his past, Amar realizes that the experiences he considered detours in life were actually the true journey. This is a “Journey” that is utterly relatable, often humorous, and ultimately intellectually and emotionally satisfying.” Alexander A. Lach, Ph.D. Beverly Hills, CA USA “Mr. Mehra elicits the inner soul in each of us through this book as he helps us understand that life is not a destination...but in essence a journey. Within each milestone that Amar takes in this book, Mr. Mehra teaches us how to best live our own unique lives and differentiate what is important to each of us (signal) and what just passes as everyday life (noise) that we need to deal with, but not be fixated on. I would recommend this book to anyone who believes that the 'fast track' is the sole purpose in life and is looking at an approach to be better grounded. Mr. Mehra's insightful story teaches us what the right path might be...but we have to find it in ourselves.” Joel C. Polakoff Senior Partner CSC Healthcare Chicago, IL USA AUDIO BOOK: Select Chapters on You Tube PRESS RELEASES: PR NewsChannel Homepagehttp://www.prnewschannel.com/2012/08/14/man-discovers-magic-of-life-journey-in-new-introspective-novel-on-love-life-being-human/ NewBookreleases.us http://newbookreleases.us/book/man-discovers-magic-of-life-journey-in-new-introspective-novel-on-love-life-being-human/ CBS Marketwatchhttp://markets.cbsnews.com/cbsnews/news/read/22030759 Boston Globe http://finance.boston.com/boston/news/read?GUID=22030759 The Sacramento Beehttp://markets.financialcontent.com/mi.sacbee/news/read/22030759 The San Francisco Chroniclehttp://finance.sfgate.com/hearst.sfgate/news/read/22030759 WLS (ABC) Chicagohttp://finance.abc7chicago.com/abclocal.wls/news/read?GUID=22030759 The Columbus Dispatch http://markets.dispatch.com/columbusdispatch/news/read/22030759 Minnesota Public Radio News http://finance.mpr.org/mpr/news/read/22030759

Superforecasting

Superforecasting Author Philip Tetlock
ISBN-10 9781448166596
Year 2015-09-24
Pages 352
Language en
Publisher Random House
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WINNER OF THE CMI MANAGEMENT FUTURES BOOK OF THE YEAR AWARD What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it. In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project – an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions – has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters. In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit – whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life.

Stopping the Noise in Your Head

Stopping the Noise in Your Head Author Reid Wilson
ISBN-10 9780757319075
Year 2016-05-03
Pages 384
Language en
Publisher Health Communications, Inc.
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Of course, worry can be an important asset when it forces our attention on problem-solving. But anxious worrying can cause us to unnecessarily focus on threat, to retreat and avoid, and to seek reassurance and safety—which is no way to foster a life of growth and excitement. In his fifth published book, Dr. Reid Wilson proposes a groundbreaking, paradoxical approach to overcoming anxiety and worry by moving away from comfort, confidence, and security and willingly moving toward uncertainty, distress and discomfort. Through the use of unconventional strategies, readers will learn how to confront anxiety head-on and step forward into the face of threat. Drawing on a range of sources—from firefighters and fitness instructors to Sir Isaac Newton and Muhammad Ali—Stopping the Noise in Your Head demonstrates the importance of shifting our perspective and stepping toward our challenges in order to regain control of our lives.

Signal

Signal Author Stephen Few
ISBN-10 1938377052
Year 2015-05-01
Pages 225
Language en
Publisher
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Teaches the analytical skills necessary to glean value from the warehouses of accumulating data In this age of so-called Big Data, organizations are scrambling to implement new software and hardware to increase the amount of data they collect and store. However, in doing so they are unwittingly making it harder to find the needles of useful information in the rapidly growing mounds of hay. If you don't know how to differentiate signals from noise, adding more noise only makes things worse. When we rely on data for making decisions, how do we tell what qualifies as a signal and what is merely noise? In and of itself, data is neither. Assuming that data is accurate, it is merely a collection of facts. When a fact is true and useful, only then is it a signal. When it's not, it's noise. It's that simple. In "Signal," Stephen Few provides the straightforward, practical instruction in everyday signal detection that has been lacking until now. Using data visualization methods, he teaches how to apply statistics to gain a comprehensive understanding of one's data and adapts the techniques of Statistical Process Control in new ways to detect not just changes in the metrics but also changes in the patterns that characterize data.

Signal to Noise

Signal to Noise Author Eric S. Nylund
ISBN-10 0380792923
Year 1999-06-01
Pages 400
Language en
Publisher Harper Collins
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Jack Potter puts computer cryptography to work for the highest bidder: sometimes for private corporations, sometimes for the government. Sometimes the work is legal; if not, Jack simply raises his price. But one day, Jack discovers something cloaked in the hiss of background radiation streaming past the Earth from deep space: a message from an alien civilization. One that's eager to do business with humanity -- and its representative. Before he knows it, Jack has entered into a partnership that will open a Pandora's Box of potential profit and loss. The governments, the multinationals, and mysterious players more powerful still, all want a piece of the action -- and they're willing to kill, even wage war, to get it. Now Jack is entangled shifting web of deceit and intrigue in which no one, not even his closest friends, can be trusted. For Earth's cloak-and-dagger business practices are writ large in the heavens...and hostile takeovers are just as common across light years as they are across boardroom tables.